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CRS83585ENRpage80
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CRS83585ENRpage80
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...-a':;‘;3mx1ugmlIHH1InxxlfllimiilN11133::liiL____________, ' 5° U0 '5 1100 Source: 1900-1978: Illinois State Department of Mines and Minerals, ‘l979-1981: Department of Energy 9 §/ U-S,‘Department of Energy. Coal Distribution: January ~ December l98l. Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration. April l982.
CRS83585ENRpage85
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CRS83585ENRpage85
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CRS-13 of various reduction targets assuming a least-cost implementation strategy. As shown, the effect of S02 reductions on the Midwest does not change significantly until 13.1 million tons. eTo determine the reduction for Illinois, the Midwest production number (which includes Illinois, Indiana, and western Kentucky) was broken out according 'to the individual state's 1980 production
CRS83585ENRpage83
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CRS83585ENRpage83
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*** 400 - S00 . , _ Shift from Unscrubbed to Scrubbed Medium Sulfur Coal*** 600 - 1,100 HMWWMMWHM; Shift from Unscrubbed to Scrubbed Low Sulfur Coal*** , l,500r - 2,000 *' Cost will vary considerably depending on region and plant size.r Costs , per ton presented in this table are intended to be representative , of average control costs only. « A ** Costs include costs of upgrading particulate
CRS83585ENRpage81
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CRS83585ENRpage81
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CRS-9 continues, although at a significantly slower pace as the compliance process is virtually complete. (see Table 2).2/ The proposed acid rain legislation requires sulfur dioxide reductions. from existing plants. If the experience of the early to mid-1970's is a guide to future utility action, much of this reduction would probably come from fuel switching, unless political factors
CRS83585ENRpage84
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CRS83585ENRpage84
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. Production Impacts of Various Acid Rain Scenarios Region Reduction Scenario (millions of tons) ' 13.1 12.0 l0.0* . 8.1, Northern Appalachia . (42)** (43) (33) ,(33)' Central Appalachia SS 50 47 47 Southern Appalachia , (4) (4) 2‘ (3)* Midwest ; (63) ,(5l) (58)' (55) West , ‘ 55 46 40, 40 g * Numbers calculated from different base than other scenarios. Scenario also assumes interstate trading
CRS83585ENRpage79
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CRS83585ENRpage79
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CR3-7 . Q .Q .@m¢~ .8e..o>oz .Am@ 39. —uLQ:.:_= u_o:_:: . w—aZ:3o..-u:u=5o_o>oa Saou m_o=:: .:O.=.mm .< .32. van 9:65-02 cause: ueugsom ..aw~m. ...:.x «a aaoasn .a.= . "came so 3..:&... ..vou: nae... .~o.of:ou .3 .39 :« noun»: ..~wa. ...:.: no :...:n .a.= .336 no oossone .692. ~30 no 0925.. 2 £09 5 noun»- voaoouon cu .ao::«,:. 3.39:0 he _:o3a§.n:oo.naoo o * £2 uuuoomon 5
CRS83585ENRpage82
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CRS83585ENRpage82
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tLow Sulfur Eastern Coal Scrubbers Variances Total Coal-Fired Power Generation Capacity in 1977 ‘ 6,8 (II 2 351 1,673 i5,798 893 450 1,187 1,270‘ 16,424 430 3,800 Source: Form 67, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 1977. Table from Boyce, et al. op. cit-
CRS83585ENRpage94
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CRS83585ENRpage94
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CRS‘22 TABLE 11. Projected 1990 Illinois Coal Production Projection ' Base Yearl 1990 U.S. Electricity 1990 Nuclear Production Production Growth Rate Capacity (GW) (million of tons) Assumption Environmental 52.5 (1980) .ss.s 1980-85 1.72 I 107 Protection ' I l986-90' 2.5% ‘ l””Agency y y I . National 9 60.0 (1979) 74.0 1989-90: 3.4% ll? Wildlfe - I I federation Source: ICF
CRS83585ENRpage93
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CRS83585ENRpage93
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CRS-21 Developing New Markets for Illinois Coal Under the proposed reduction program, Illinois would have 12 years to develop new markets for its coal to replace those lost due to fuel switching. To examine market conditions in 1995 is difficult. However, current assess- ments suggest such markets would probably be in one of three areas: (1) new power plants, (2) synthetic oil or natural gas
CRS83585ENRpage92
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CRS83585ENRpage92
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CR5-20 addition of the 9,360 job loss calculated here, the unemployment rate would rise to 21.4 percent, assuming a constant labor force and no re-employment. Loss of personal income to the area would be on the order of $200 million or between 15 and 20 percent of the area's income. _§/ Unless the coal industry could be revived through new markets or the manufacturing sector be expanded
CRS83585ENRpage90
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CRS83585ENRpage90
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-producing.counties, the study area's reduction would be 14.1 millionwtons or 48 percent. In 1980, about 6,000 of Illinois’ 16,000 coal industry employees worked in the six county area. I:/ If the projected 48 percent reduction is spread evenly across the counties’ coal industry, 2,880 jobs in the coal industry would be lost. £i/ This would be out of a total loss of 6,560 jobs statewide. A similiar reduction
CRS83585ENRpage87
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CRS83585ENRpage87
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Survey of Buying Power Data Service. TABLE 6. Employment and Unemployment for Southern Illinois August 1982 (preliminary) Labor Unemployment County Force Employment Number Rate Franklin ' 16,959 14,483 2,476 14.6 . Gallatin 2,662 2,088 574 21.6 Hamilton 4,749 4,202 ”547 11.5 Jackson 28,575 25,451 3,124 10.9 Jefferson 19,089 16,371 2,718 14.2 Perry 10,009 8,651 1,358 13.6 Randolph 16,955 15,256 1,699
CRS83585ENRpage91
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CRS83585ENRpage91
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in Six County Area _ , Unemployment Scenario Labor Force ' Number 9 Rate Actual 1980 89,971 I 9,870 11.0 "Least-cost, . 9 Scenario" 89,971 9 ~ 19,230 21.4 Source: Data from Illinois Bureau of Employment Security, calculations by CRS. ljy The "rule of thumb" for estimating indirect job losses is to assume three indirect jobs lost for every direct job lost. However, because
CRS83585ENRpage88
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CRS83585ENRpage88
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CRS°16 TABLE 7.. Effective Buying Income of Southern Counties (1981 dollars) ’ 31413 AVERAGE ' 24,424 ,27,225 County Median Average Per 1 Household Household Capita EBI , EBI EBI Franklin 1 S 13,399 S, 16g5OO 5 6,518 Gallatin 13,281 15,2993 5,838 Hamilton, 11,381 15,110 6,174 Jackson‘ 15,848 21,433 8,029 Jefferson 15,970 19,415 ,5,559 Perry 16,579 18,672 7,013 iRandolph 15,432 17,057 5
CRS83585ENRpage89
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CRS~17 TABLE 8. 1980 Employment in Six Counties in Selected Categories (full and part-time)1 Wage and Salary 1980 Employment Catagory , A 1 Employment Mining - A 5,548 , Construction ’ , 2,961 1 Manufacturing ' 1 ' 10,593 Transportation and Public Utilities ' 4,169 Wholesale Trade 1 I: , 2,164 Retail Trade A 11,746, Service , ‘- ' y A 10,518 Government T 9 _ _ 20,812 Total
CRS83585ENRpage86
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CRS83585ENRpage86
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's population declined 20 to 30 percent in contrast fiith significant gains in the northern part of the State. During the 1970's coal production stablized in Illinois at a higher level than during the l9SO's (see Figure 5) and the population trend reversed (see Table 3). l K During the eariy 1980's, southern Illinois is an economically depressed area. Table 6 shows the high unemployment rate
CRS83585ENRpage100
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CRS83585ENRpage100
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LIBRARY . * OF WASHlNGT'ON uwnvensnw LOUIS - M0.
CRS83585ENRpage98
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CRS83585ENRpage98
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, fewer jobs will be created and virtually none for under- ground miners. Also, because of the highpaying nature of the mining jobs created, competition from local residents could be expected. CONCLUSION Assuming economic forces were allowed to work unhindered, enactment of an 8 million ton S02 reduction program could have a dramatic effect on the Illinois coal industr . Emplovino a least-cost scenario
CRS83585ENRpage95
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CRS83585ENRpage95
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practical in meeting an acid rain reduction goal. For example, the program could require FGD units on all baseload power plants over IOOMW which began operation after 1960 (except under extreme cirtumstances). Such a requirement would reduce the production impact on Illinois from 25.6 million tons to between 5 to 6 million tons. g;/ Such a reduction would represent about 10 percent of Illinois’ coal
CRS83585ENRpage97
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CRS83585ENRpage97
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of Various Reduction Scenarios 9 Reduction Scenario (millions of tons) Region = s 5 .' 5.1 2.7 Midwest p. T T . (24)* (18) Illinois it ‘ (17) ,(14) *() = reduction in production Source: ,ICF, Incorporated -Retraining or Relocating Coal Workersr O The final alternative discussed here is to "manage" the economic disruption by retraining or relocating coal workers. The extent of retraining

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