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CRS-31 for by the Peabody analysis. These and other potential alleviating factors are discussed later. TABLE 23. Projected Coal Losses under Two Scenarios _ Tonnage Losses ‘Percentage of 1980. (millions of tons) . Production State ICF Peabody ICF Peabody Ohio l9.7* 18.1 50 46 ,Western Pennsylvania 10.0 6.3 ll 7 50. Northern Virginia 3.0 22.4* 7 * Production losses restricted to 5 percent
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CR3-34 TABLE 27. 1980 Employment in Six Counties in Selected Categories . (full- and partrtime) Wage and Salary 1980 Employment Category Employment Mining ' : 7,862 Construction . 986* Xanufacturing 8,228 Transportation and Public Utilities p l,895* Wholesale Trade _ . Q 898‘ Retail Trade ' 6,702 Service = ‘ 5,480* Government 5,516 Total Wave and Salarv Em lovment 6 38 685** C J P ,4 3
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CRS-28 ’ Total Wage and Salary Employment TABLE 20. 1980 Employment in Five Counties in Selected Categories 1 (full- and part—time) Wage and Salary 1980 Employment Category Employment Hining 11,121 Construction 1,812 , Manufacturing ~77-‘ U ”75,647”7“’" Transportation and Public Utilities 2,749 Wholesale Trade 1,508 Retail Trade 5,601 Service 8,082 Government 7,769 4e,ae3* * Column does
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CRS83585ENRpage43
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CR3-37 up by Pittsburgh. With surrounding counties, they would receive the brunt of any steam coal reduction. FIGURE 9. Pennsylvania Counties Examined in Study l;BlNGHAMTON hog, .0 unit BINC-HAMYCN NIIV V09! 1 2. S I ; 3 p ‘ r/ M‘ H ‘h i ".0. ogp SUSOUEI-nun I . It noun ( "W" \ ,' ‘\ , NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA | I‘ \ /I "I ' '_,' _.(auu~-A “' 1 ‘ ‘ °“ 4
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CR3-36 TABLE 29. Projected Additional Unemployment in Three~County Area Additional Unemployment §cenario Labor Force Number Rate ICF p 50,352 7,150 14.2 Peabody , 50,352 6,500 17.9 Actual 2/83 Employment A 50,352 9,961 19.8 L Given the area's already depressed economy and its dependence on the coal industry, recovery from such an event would probably be slow. Its nearness to Pittsburgh
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CRS~42 1 rate by L to 2 percentage points. in an absolute sense, 1 to 2 percent does not \ ..Lj appear to be much; however, if generally higherrthan-average unemployment persists, it would be an additional burden if no recovery occurs before l995. If these impacts occur, western Pennsylvania has the greatest resources to absorb the job losses projected here. As noted, there are several
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,380 3,860 13.2 -Earion 23,600 ,20,780 2,820 11.9 Marshall ' 17,270 1 14,950 2,320 13.4» Monongalia 29,130 26,930 2,210 7.6 Preston 12,830 10,930 1,900 14,8 Randolph 12,330 , 10,270’ 2,060 16.7 Upshur ’ '12,360 10,800 1,360 12.7 Source: State of West Virginia. With the exception of Marshall connty in the panhandle, the'effective buying income of northern West Virginia counties
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Unemployment County» Labor'Force Employment Number Rate Armstrong 31,800 24,900 £6,900 21.6 Clarion. 18,800 15,400 3,400 18.0 Clearfield 40,900 32,800 .8,100 19.8 Greene 13,700 10,500 3,200 23.3 vIndiana" 43,900 36,600 7,200 16.4 Jefferson 22,200’ 18,300 3,900 17.5 Washington .98,900 80,200 ‘"M18,700 18.9 Source: 1 State of Pennsylvania. .7 __A_._ w§n< ...., - - .. -..__ _.....__ _..&apos
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Sources: l98O ‘Labor and Proprietor Income Employment Sector (thousands of dollars) Eining 9. 748,169 Construction ' l49;482* Manufacturing A 792,988 Iransportation and Public Utilities 263,723 , Wholesale.Trade ’ 126,416 Retail Trade . ‘ 284,272* , Serfiice ‘ « A 363,2l3* Government ., 391,917 Total Labor and Proprietor Income 3,250,536** * Estimated. 9 - ** Column does not add to total because
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benefits or unemployment compensation from the State), 0 The loss in coal production and income would translate into additional job llosses in related areas. Using a 2.25 multiplier, additional job losses are estimated at between 1,900 and 3,150. Hence, the total employment‘loss would be between 2,750 and 4,550 jobs in the seven-county area. Given the large labor force in western Pennsylvania
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1. 1.1. 1...‘. ._..___‘ __ c—..;—..;._‘._‘...._.._-.._i, . s_¢_. -..r_.,~4 TABLE 32. Effective Buying Income (EBI) of Western Counties 1 Median Average Per County Household Household Capita EBI EBI EBI Armstrong $17,788 $19,130 $7,055 Clarion 18,085 20,242 6,747 Clearfield 18,653 20,203 7,129 Greene‘ 116,079 17,780 6,286 .Indiana 21,754 25,216 8,352 Jefferson 17,252 18,874 6,891 Washington 19,129
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(see table 36). However, West Virginia coal production during the same period declined aboute15 percent. I TABLE 36. "Population Trends in‘Northern West Virginia: 1970-1980 County 1981 Population ‘ Z Change from 1970 Barbour 17,100 21.9 Harrison 78,100 '7.8 Marion 1 66,700 1 8.7 Marshall 42,300 .' 12.5 ,Mononga1ia . 6 77,300 21.3 Preston 31,500 23.7 Randolph 29,500 19.9 Upshur 24
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in 1982, I I half of that to Canada. Larger amounts of low-sulfur steam coal were shipped from southern West Virginia and eastern Kentucky. . However, this boom in the steam coal market has stopped in 1983, calling‘into I doubt the optimistic predictions of future massive exports. Given the current sit? iuation,?any prediction of future exports would be very speculative. To summarize, it appears from
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be at least 50 miles-rand probably more~-from the low~sulfur mines.. Unemployed southern coal miners, both steamand metallurgical, wouldbbe much closer. FIGURE 11. Characteristics of West Virginia Coal I’.-..;.; L73 9 ~ n \ r ‘I '..u'-@.{.. I 1 V ;".\O|"'¥K ,l‘ - A I ‘ ._ ‘ IIAMML -I v :. : : , WESTERN LIMIIT or - ' ‘ " ‘ / - _ MlNA8LE<§gUMlrOl.13\ 2 .-S9&apos
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. However, if the country were to take national responsibility for reducing S02 emissions, a broadrbased user fee on electricity‘generatedHcould be imposed to cover the capital costs of control technologies, involving only a small increase (generally under 5 percent) in electricity rates. A second possibility for lowered consumer rates is the emergence of new techr nologies such as LIMB, AFBC, and low
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underground coal miners might need considerable training to obtain jobs. Also, retraining does not mean that a job would be available. In some areas examined, the loss of asubstantial part of the area's basic industry, coal mining, might deprive the area of the vitality necessary to attract new in- dustry. However, unforeseen economic development by the 19903 might provide an unexpected range
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CRS~36 TABLE 45. Projection of Coal Harkets in 1990 Projection Actual EPA NW? State L980 L990 l99O Illinois ‘ A ~ 52.5 53.8 50.0 Indiana. 30.9 42.0 27.0 Western Kentucky 4L.O 62.3 42.Q Ohio - 39.4 36.9 44.0 Pennsylvaniaji 93.1 ll4.6 .93.0 Northern West Virginia 48.3 43.5 48.0 I ~roughly the same after implementation of the S02 reduction as before. '(Indeed, depending on the Btu content
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of Furnace l982 g 1985 1990 Basic Oxygen 62.0 62.4 62.4 Electric . 30.0 29.1. g 33.7 Open Hearth A 8.1 8.2 3.9 * Columns do not total because of rounding. Source: Data Resources, Inc. Honthly En- ergy Review, Spring 1983. « V For the export market, sluggish demand for steel by countries using U.S. metallurgical coal, technological improvements in coke utilization, and minor dis- placement of oil in iron
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by l0 million.tons by 1995, and steam coal production increase by 1.0 percent a year until l995, about 8,000 jobs would be created. 20/' Assumin that.ecid rain lecislation created demand for . - —— g ° 1i O 35 million tons, an additional 12,700 jobs would be created. This would absorb just about all the UMW miners unemployed in the northern miners. Hence; such legislation would unemployment
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res-so couciuszon If economic forces were allowed to work unhindered; enactment of an 8-million- ton S02 reduction program could have a dramatic effect on the coal industries in Illinois, western Kentucky, and Ohio. Production losses projected here could raise unemployment rates in the coalfproducing areas of these States by ll to 18 percent- age points, depending on the specific area. Even
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