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CRS83585ENRpage82
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tLow Sulfur Eastern Coal Scrubbers Variances Total Coal-Fired Power Generation Capacity in 1977 ‘ 6,8 (II 2 351 1,673 i5,798 893 450 1,187 1,270‘ 16,424 430 3,800 Source: Form 67, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 1977. Table from Boyce, et al. op. cit-
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CRS83585ENRpage94
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CRS‘22 TABLE 11. Projected 1990 Illinois Coal Production Projection ' Base Yearl 1990 U.S. Electricity 1990 Nuclear Production Production Growth Rate Capacity (GW) (million of tons) Assumption Environmental 52.5 (1980) .ss.s 1980-85 1.72 I 107 Protection ' I l986-90' 2.5% ‘ l””Agency y y I . National 9 60.0 (1979) 74.0 1989-90: 3.4% ll? Wildlfe - I I federation Source: ICF
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CRS83585ENRpage93
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CRS-21 Developing New Markets for Illinois Coal Under the proposed reduction program, Illinois would have 12 years to develop new markets for its coal to replace those lost due to fuel switching. To examine market conditions in 1995 is difficult. However, current assess- ments suggest such markets would probably be in one of three areas: (1) new power plants, (2) synthetic oil or natural gas
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CRS83585ENRpage92
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CR5-20 addition of the 9,360 job loss calculated here, the unemployment rate would rise to 21.4 percent, assuming a constant labor force and no re-employment. Loss of personal income to the area would be on the order of $200 million or between 15 and 20 percent of the area's income. _§/ Unless the coal industry could be revived through new markets or the manufacturing sector be expanded
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CRS83585ENRpage90
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-producing.counties, the study area's reduction would be 14.1 millionwtons or 48 percent. In 1980, about 6,000 of Illinois’ 16,000 coal industry employees worked in the six county area. I:/ If the projected 48 percent reduction is spread evenly across the counties’ coal industry, 2,880 jobs in the coal industry would be lost. £i/ This would be out of a total loss of 6,560 jobs statewide. A similiar reduction
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CRS83585ENRpage87
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Survey of Buying Power Data Service. TABLE 6. Employment and Unemployment for Southern Illinois August 1982 (preliminary) Labor Unemployment County Force Employment Number Rate Franklin ' 16,959 14,483 2,476 14.6 . Gallatin 2,662 2,088 574 21.6 Hamilton 4,749 4,202 ”547 11.5 Jackson 28,575 25,451 3,124 10.9 Jefferson 19,089 16,371 2,718 14.2 Perry 10,009 8,651 1,358 13.6 Randolph 16,955 15,256 1,699
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CRS83585ENRpage91
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in Six County Area _ , Unemployment Scenario Labor Force ' Number 9 Rate Actual 1980 89,971 I 9,870 11.0 "Least-cost, . 9 Scenario" 89,971 9 ~ 19,230 21.4 Source: Data from Illinois Bureau of Employment Security, calculations by CRS. ljy The "rule of thumb" for estimating indirect job losses is to assume three indirect jobs lost for every direct job lost. However, because
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CRS83585ENRpage88
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CRS°16 TABLE 7.. Effective Buying Income of Southern Counties (1981 dollars) ’ 31413 AVERAGE ' 24,424 ,27,225 County Median Average Per 1 Household Household Capita EBI , EBI EBI Franklin 1 S 13,399 S, 16g5OO 5 6,518 Gallatin 13,281 15,2993 5,838 Hamilton, 11,381 15,110 6,174 Jackson‘ 15,848 21,433 8,029 Jefferson 15,970 19,415 ,5,559 Perry 16,579 18,672 7,013 iRandolph 15,432 17,057 5
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CRS83585ENRpage89
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CRS~17 TABLE 8. 1980 Employment in Six Counties in Selected Categories (full and part-time)1 Wage and Salary 1980 Employment Catagory , A 1 Employment Mining - A 5,548 , Construction ’ , 2,961 1 Manufacturing ' 1 ' 10,593 Transportation and Public Utilities ' 4,169 Wholesale Trade 1 I: , 2,164 Retail Trade A 11,746, Service , ‘- ' y A 10,518 Government T 9 _ _ 20,812 Total
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CRS83585ENRpage86
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's population declined 20 to 30 percent in contrast fiith significant gains in the northern part of the State. During the 1970's coal production stablized in Illinois at a higher level than during the l9SO's (see Figure 5) and the population trend reversed (see Table 3). l K During the eariy 1980's, southern Illinois is an economically depressed area. Table 6 shows the high unemployment rate
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CRS83585ENRpage98
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, fewer jobs will be created and virtually none for under- ground miners. Also, because of the highpaying nature of the mining jobs created, competition from local residents could be expected. CONCLUSION Assuming economic forces were allowed to work unhindered, enactment of an 8 million ton S02 reduction program could have a dramatic effect on the Illinois coal industr . Emplovino a least-cost scenario
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CRS83585ENRpage95
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practical in meeting an acid rain reduction goal. For example, the program could require FGD units on all baseload power plants over IOOMW which began operation after 1960 (except under extreme cirtumstances). Such a requirement would reduce the production impact on Illinois from 25.6 million tons to between 5 to 6 million tons. g;/ Such a reduction would represent about 10 percent of Illinois’ coal
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CRS83585ENRpage97
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of Various Reduction Scenarios 9 Reduction Scenario (millions of tons) Region = s 5 .' 5.1 2.7 Midwest p. T T . (24)* (18) Illinois it ‘ (17) ,(14) *() = reduction in production Source: ,ICF, Incorporated -Retraining or Relocating Coal Workersr O The final alternative discussed here is to "manage" the economic disruption by retraining or relocating coal workers. The extent of retraining
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CRS83585ENRpage96
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consumers.’ Reducing the S02 Reduction Requirement 1 The impact of a reduction program on Illinois coal production could be reduced by reducing the S02 reduction requirement. Such a move would have precedent as the committee bill has already cut the proposed LO million ton reduction to eight million tons. However, fer reasons discussed earlier, 3/ H & W Management Science Consultants. Employment
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CRS83585ENRpage99
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CRS‘27 40 percent of Illinois’ l98O production. For the southern Illinois counties examined here, such a loss would almost double that area's 1980 unemployment rate from ll to 21 percent and involve loss of about $200 million in personal income (about 17 percent of the counties total). Of the mitigating factors investigated, only two provide any potentially significant relief for Illinois
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CRS85-1026SPRp165
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.W. Travis (Ten Speed Press. 1981. $9.95). A microcomputer-based ver- sion of the Inventory is available. (by John W. Travis. M.D., M.P.H) 9 $1.00- 52.60 YOUR HEALTH PROFILE Health Education Center 200 Ross Street Pittsburgh. PA 15219 This questionnaire comes in teen. adult. and senior citizen versions with 20 to 35 ques- tions focusing on the health habits and life- style most relevant to each age group
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CRS85-1026SPRp163
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Kentucky, Phyllis Skonicki. 50-2./564-7112 Louisiana. Ellyce Goins. 50-4/568-5-4-H Maine, Michael T. Gay. 207z'289-£3201 Michigan. Russell E. Holmes. .517/373-9437 Montana, Robert Moon. -£06/-H-1-£740 New Hampshire. Carla Budd Dean. . 603/271-4551 New York. Linsley Piper. 518/474-1222 Ohio, Morris F. Stamm. 61-i/-166--£626 Oklahoma. Neil Hann. 405/271-5601 South Carolina. Thomas F. Gillette. 803/758-0338
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CRS85-1026SPRp164
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-based instrument but uses a simplified printout. More information will be available in late summer 1965. 0 For IBM-PC: approximately $150. I-IEALTHSTYLE Wellsource 15431 Southeast 82nd Drive. Suite F Clackamas. OR 97015 v.503)656-T4-I6 Based on HealthSti/le: A Self Test. it self- scoring questionnaire. this program is de- signed for individual users. but the scores. instead of being displayed on the screen
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