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CRS86554EPWpage36
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CRS86554EPWpage36
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gains the children had made." 21] E2] Hebbeler, Kathleen. An Old and a New Question on the Effects of Early Education for Children from Low Income Families. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, v. 7, no. 3 (fall 1985). p. 207-216. 31/ Ibid., p. 216. ueeeev wA::%.: r:;«eToN UN2'v' ST. LOUILS - MO.
CRS86554EPWpage16
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CRS86554EPWpage16
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CRS-14 system is currently administered by the National Association for the Education of Young Children (NAEYC), as discussed later in this section.) The perform- ance-based assessments are conducted by local assessment teams which gubmitr documentation and recommendations to the CDA National Credential Program. Ac- cording to DHHS, approximately 3,000 assessments are made each year. The 1985
CRS86554EPWpage02
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CRS86554EPWpage02
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ADMINISTRATIONOOOOOOOOOOOOOOIOOOOOOO0000000IOOOOOOOOQIOOOOOIOOOOO Head Start Teachers’ Salaries and Unemployment Compensation . . . . ..,... Attendance0OO0000000000OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOQOG000000000 InsuranceOO0OOOIOIOOOOOOOOOOOOOODOOOOOO-OOOOOOOIOOIOOOOOOO PROGRAM EVALUATIONS................ OOOOOODOOOOCOOOOOOOOOIOD00000000009000 Two Recent Evaluations of Early Childhood Intervention Programs...... 13 16 19 19 24 26 28 29
CRS86554EPWpage22
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CRS86554EPWpage22
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to reflect insurance usage) and there have been dramatic increases in unemploy- . if ment insurance costs for Head Start programs in the past three years ($9.8 mil- plion in l983 to $15.6 million in 1985). The report notes that these costs are draining funds that "might otherwise be used for merit or cost of living raises for staff" and "are unnecessarily eroding the quality of the programs
CRS83558Spage19
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CRS83558Spage19
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economic growth, provide for aging and retirement of plant, and to reduce dependence on oil and gas. The capacity planned by the utilities for 1991 is sufficient to provide a secure supply assuming electric growth of 2.9 percent annually, but not enough to cover the aboverequirements. elf electric demand grows at 1.4 percent per year, planned capacity is adequate for all purposes. On the other hand
CRS83558Spage39
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CRS83558Spage39
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LECTRIC CAPACITY, 1973-2000 CRS-29 HIGH MEDIUM " ou q‘\ "‘I‘T T U '1" O 0 G O G G W , M 5 ¢ H000 ENOCBCPFM rw% 1 I I I I ITUU maoo «O00 «mmm «man «mam «now «our «man «mom «God #000 mama «mum «mam «mmm «amt «omm «mam fi®Qd_ «Qua “Q50 dOFN% «obs «Ohm «ohm «arr %«OFM Venn
CRS83558Spage42
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CRS83558Spage42
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CRS-32 umqo . ozmou._ 4:4: xfit mmco Sac: _..........HH_ uESuzmm...,: BB m¢w> ooom mama snag man“ 1 w om: . o w w om H In .x. zacmqz znm wsmmmmm ooom 0.». mmo n mozzzmom mooE<> .mz_om§ Emmmmm afiazzmm m mz=oHm
CRS83558Spage07
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CRS83558Spage07
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that there will be capacity shortagesiinythe future if plans for new plant are not substantially expanded. The CRS forecasts of demand for electricity indicate that electric genera- tionwill grow at a a ; slower rate than GNP over the next 17 years. Under the medium case scenario electric gdiemandpgrowthawould be 2.9 tpercent through 2000 assuming 3~percent GNP growth in real eterms. The capacity situation depends i
CRS83558Spage56
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CRS83558Spage56
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'972 44.8 85 1145 7.3 70 . 1969 ' 1973 ' 1147 3.4 100 1640 7.5 100 1974 - 1978 ~ 1317 2.3 ? 115 2031 4.3 124 1979 ' 1982 1433* 2.4 129 2268 2.3 138 v» Four year average. Sources: Economic Report of the President 1983 and Energy Information Administration, DOE.
CRS83558Spage58
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CRS83558Spage58
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CRS-48 Table A-3. Estimaeed Reserve Margins, Various Scenarios, 1990, 1995, 2000 Capacity Case and Year Reserve Margin by Demand Case High Medium Low 1990 Best 1/ 33 42 52 media; _z§_/ 31 33 so Worst 2/ 28 37 47 1995 0Best 1/ ' 24 39 56 Media‘; 2/ ‘ 10 23 33 Worst _3__7 - -5 6 0 19 2000 " Best _1_/ 0 15 35 so Medium 2/ 0-10 5 .24: Worst 37 -34 -25 -11 1/ NERC Estimate. 2/ Average
CRS83558Spage03
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CRS83558Spage03
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ABSTRACT This paper presents a series of electric demand and capacity forecasts. These indicate no serious regional imbalance through 1990, but a need for additional capacity by 2000. The effects of economic and physical obsolescence as well as small vs.large plants are also discussed. In any case, much of the deficit could be covered by "least-cost" methods.
CRS83558Spage55
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CRS83558Spage55
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h~ 7'vl’-‘:31 . __>: ‘v \_.— CRS-45 APPENDIX - TABULAR DATA
CRS83558Spage08
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CRS83558Spage08
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planned but not yet authorized by the utilities, as well as forty percent of 1981 capacity due to retirements. The middle capacity case is the average of the high and low.i Reserve margins resulting from the various demand and supply forecasts were used to indicate whether supply problems may occur in the future. Assuming a 20 percent reserve margin requirement as optimal, there appears to be no serious
CRS83558Spage22
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CRS83558Spage22
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are long-term and include items such as the decentralization of energy sources, or demand uncer- tainty. Micro issues, on the other hand, tend to be shorter~term, say 1 to 3 years, and include items such as the nuclear versus coal controversy, construc- tion work in progress, etc. The overarching trends, a kind of chicken-and-egg proposition, can be defined as follows: 1. The minimum risk society
CRS83558Spage21
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CRS83558Spage21
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cns-1o less than 24 percent complete, will be cancelled. Resulting capacity in 1990 will be 680 MW. This problem‘ will be exacerbated by the assumption that decentralized generation will not make much of an impact. Therefore, DOE estimates that at 2 percent real annual GNP growth, the reserve margin nationally will be 33 percent but less than 20 percent in Texas, SPP, and MAPP; at 3 percent GNP
CRS83558Spage29
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CRS83558Spage29
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.S- is not a completely integrated national electric system. To this end we have computed a series of regional estimates (table 1). Inasmuch as we lack a regional model, the regional data were estimated by distributing our national _6__/ 1.1-‘ = Generation (Kwh) our [Peak (Kw) x 8760 hours]. Data from NERO. Electric Powersupply and Demand, 1982-1991. August 1982, p. 21.
CRS83558Spage09
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CRS83558Spage09
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off of the capacity requirement in 2000.9 The bulk of these savings would come from conservation and load management.i Capacity enhancing; measures, which includercoggenerratison, small prover, direct solar, intertiesg, powerplant pro-* ductivity and coal conversions, are expected .to contribute less than 1.5, percent of the estimated capacity requirement in 2000. The bulk of this will derive from
CRS83558Spage25
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CRS83558Spage25
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for electricity considered to be derived from such growth, the relationship is not imutable. In fact, it has changed dramatically in the last few years. During the 1953- 1962 period electricity production grew at close to 3 times the rate of GNP; in the 1963~l972 era it increased at approximately double the GNP rate; and in the 1973-1982 period it increased at virtually the same rate.i This shift is illusr
CRS83558Spage41
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CRS83558Spage41
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orlower margin. For our purposes, however, 20 percent seems an adequate indicator of adequacy. To this end, we have computed reserve margins for each combination of our demand and capacity cases (figure 5). As indicated, there is no problem under, any of our assumptions in 1990. In 1995, however, some difficulties begin to appear. Under our worst.cgp,city—assumptions, the reserve margin is borderline
CRS83558Spage10
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CRS83558Spage10
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CRS-x the current utility planning horizon, additional supphy beyond the capacity icurrently on the books would be required. Much of this deficit could be adequately covered by the contribution of "least-cost" methods, particularly conservation and load management.

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