Search results

(174,201 - 174,220 of 183,843)

Pages

CRS83558Spage19
Title
CRS83558Spage19
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
economic growth, provide for aging and retirement of plant, and to reduce dependence on oil and gas. The capacity planned by the utilities for 1991 is sufficient to provide a secure supply assuming electric growth of 2.9 percent annually, but not enough to cover the aboverequirements. elf electric demand grows at 1.4 percent per year, planned capacity is adequate for all purposes. On the other hand
CRS83558Spage39
Title
CRS83558Spage39
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
LECTRIC CAPACITY, 1973-2000 CRS-29 HIGH MEDIUM " ou q‘\ "‘I‘T T U '1" O 0 G O G G W , M 5 ¢ H000 ENOCBCPFM rw% 1 I I I I ITUU maoo «O00 «mmm «man «mam «now «our «man «mom «God #000 mama «mum «mam «mmm «amt «omm «mam fi®Qd_ «Qua “Q50 dOFN% «obs «Ohm «ohm «arr %«OFM Venn
CRS83558Spage42
Title
CRS83558Spage42
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
CRS-32 umqo . ozmou._ 4:4: xfit mmco Sac: _..........HH_ uESuzmm...,: BB m¢w> ooom mama snag man“ 1 w om: . o w w om H In .x. zacmqz znm wsmmmmm ooom 0.». mmo n mozzzmom mooE<> .mz_om§ Emmmmm afiazzmm m mz=oHm
CRS83558Spage07
Title
CRS83558Spage07
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
that there will be capacity shortagesiinythe future if plans for new plant are not substantially expanded. The CRS forecasts of demand for electricity indicate that electric genera- tionwill grow at a a ; slower rate than GNP over the next 17 years. Under the medium case scenario electric gdiemandpgrowthawould be 2.9 tpercent through 2000 assuming 3~percent GNP growth in real eterms. The capacity situation depends i
CRS83558Spage56
Title
CRS83558Spage56
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
'972 44.8 85 1145 7.3 70 . 1969 ' 1973 ' 1147 3.4 100 1640 7.5 100 1974 - 1978 ~ 1317 2.3 ? 115 2031 4.3 124 1979 ' 1982 1433* 2.4 129 2268 2.3 138 v» Four year average. Sources: Economic Report of the President 1983 and Energy Information Administration, DOE.
CRS83558Spage58
Title
CRS83558Spage58
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
CRS-48 Table A-3. Estimaeed Reserve Margins, Various Scenarios, 1990, 1995, 2000 Capacity Case and Year Reserve Margin by Demand Case High Medium Low 1990 Best 1/ 33 42 52 media; _z§_/ 31 33 so Worst 2/ 28 37 47 1995 0Best 1/ ' 24 39 56 Media‘; 2/ ‘ 10 23 33 Worst _3__7 - -5 6 0 19 2000 " Best _1_/ 0 15 35 so Medium 2/ 0-10 5 .24: Worst 37 -34 -25 -11 1/ NERC Estimate. 2/ Average
CRS83558Spage03
Title
CRS83558Spage03
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
ABSTRACT This paper presents a series of electric demand and capacity forecasts. These indicate no serious regional imbalance through 1990, but a need for additional capacity by 2000. The effects of economic and physical obsolescence as well as small vs.large plants are also discussed. In any case, much of the deficit could be covered by "least-cost" methods.
CRS83558Spage55
Title
CRS83558Spage55
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
h~ 7'vl’-‘:31 . __>: ‘v \_.— CRS-45 APPENDIX - TABULAR DATA
CRS83558Spage08
Title
CRS83558Spage08
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
planned but not yet authorized by the utilities, as well as forty percent of 1981 capacity due to retirements. The middle capacity case is the average of the high and low.i Reserve margins resulting from the various demand and supply forecasts were used to indicate whether supply problems may occur in the future. Assuming a 20 percent reserve margin requirement as optimal, there appears to be no serious
CRS83558Spage22
Title
CRS83558Spage22
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
are long-term and include items such as the decentralization of energy sources, or demand uncer- tainty. Micro issues, on the other hand, tend to be shorter~term, say 1 to 3 years, and include items such as the nuclear versus coal controversy, construc- tion work in progress, etc. The overarching trends, a kind of chicken-and-egg proposition, can be defined as follows: 1. The minimum risk society
CRS83558Spage21
Title
CRS83558Spage21
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
cns-1o less than 24 percent complete, will be cancelled. Resulting capacity in 1990 will be 680 MW. This problem‘ will be exacerbated by the assumption that decentralized generation will not make much of an impact. Therefore, DOE estimates that at 2 percent real annual GNP growth, the reserve margin nationally will be 33 percent but less than 20 percent in Texas, SPP, and MAPP; at 3 percent GNP
CRS83558Spage29
Title
CRS83558Spage29
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
.S- is not a completely integrated national electric system. To this end we have computed a series of regional estimates (table 1). Inasmuch as we lack a regional model, the regional data were estimated by distributing our national _6__/ 1.1-‘ = Generation (Kwh) our [Peak (Kw) x 8760 hours]. Data from NERO. Electric Powersupply and Demand, 1982-1991. August 1982, p. 21.
CRS83558Spage09
Title
CRS83558Spage09
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
off of the capacity requirement in 2000.9 The bulk of these savings would come from conservation and load management.i Capacity enhancing; measures, which includercoggenerratison, small prover, direct solar, intertiesg, powerplant pro-* ductivity and coal conversions, are expected .to contribute less than 1.5, percent of the estimated capacity requirement in 2000. The bulk of this will derive from
CRS83558Spage25
Title
CRS83558Spage25
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
for electricity considered to be derived from such growth, the relationship is not imutable. In fact, it has changed dramatically in the last few years. During the 1953- 1962 period electricity production grew at close to 3 times the rate of GNP; in the 1963~l972 era it increased at approximately double the GNP rate; and in the 1973-1982 period it increased at virtually the same rate.i This shift is illusr
CRS83558Spage41
Title
CRS83558Spage41
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
orlower margin. For our purposes, however, 20 percent seems an adequate indicator of adequacy. To this end, we have computed reserve margins for each combination of our demand and capacity cases (figure 5). As indicated, there is no problem under, any of our assumptions in 1990. In 1995, however, some difficulties begin to appear. Under our worst.cgp,city—assumptions, the reserve margin is borderline
CRS83558Spage10
Title
CRS83558Spage10
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
CRS-x the current utility planning horizon, additional supphy beyond the capacity icurrently on the books would be required. Much of this deficit could be adequately covered by the contribution of "least-cost" methods, particularly conservation and load management.
CRS83558Spage38
Title
CRS83558Spage38
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
, plants built in the 1950-1959 period by 1995, and those built in the. 1960-1969 period by 2000. As a result of our retirement assumptions some 40 percent of 1981 capacity would be eliminated by 2000. _l__.'_3_/ Under these assumptions there would be 697,000 MW in 1990, 616,000 MW in 1995, and 499,000 MW in 2000. This case assumes that retirements continue space but 33/ NERO. Electric Power
CRS83558Spage36
Title
CRS83558Spage36
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
escalate at areal rate of 2 percent per year, providing oil prices also escalate. Nuclear plants require an escalating oil price and no increase in construction costs. To sum up, within the cost assumptions tested, if one expects oil prices to escalate over the next thirty years or so at an average annual real rate of at least 2 percent, it is cost efficient to replace an existing oil-fired plant either
CRS83558Spage59
Title
CRS83558Spage59
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
.20 3 - ‘ 8 NPCC 53 30 22 1 O SERC 158 - 109 36 A 1 - 12 SP? "78 39 111 1 - 27 WSCC 128 102 37 R5 + 16 U.S. 735 498 189 11 - 37
CRS83558Spage24
Title
CRS83558Spage24
Page from
info:fedora/mu:87448
Text
‘e-‘ 1,...-_=-.(<_r.'.=r CRS-13 number of households may be offset by their smaller size. Residential use may also be offset by the expected lower growth in population. It is anticipated that population will be approximately 10 percent higher in 1990 compared with 1980 but only 7 percent greater in 2000 compared with 1990. This expectation may prove conservative. Growth in the 1970-1980

Pages