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program for a number of years were to some extent surprised by how quick and easy our victories in 1980 and 1981 seemed to have come. Our difficulties this year have brought us back to the reality that the battle for good economic policy will require a long-term commitment...in educat- ing the American people and the news media 44 226 ...that long run economic growth can be obtained only with
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restrictive monetary policy. The costs of tight money were exacerbated by huge tax cuts. Remov- ing the heavy hand of government in both these" ways did not produce sudden expansion, but large budget deficits. and high interest rates. High inter- est rates in turn helped deepen the recession, which then threw fiscal and monetary policy further out of kilter. On the face of it, reducing the role of government appears to have made things worse. The one possible way out of these problems was large cuts in government spending. Musgrave claims that the administration deliberately pursued a policy of unbalanced budgets to force the Con- gress into dramatic cuts in domestic spending. This strategy failed; between the President's defense buildup and domestic spending, which even con- servative Republicans felt obliged to support. needed budget reductions could not be achieved. Other political miscalculations occurred as well. The large and unproductive tax advantages given to businessmen were the political price of the supply-side tax cuts. Further, the domestic spend- ing reductions that were achieved came at the expense of the weakest constituency on Capitol Hill, the poor. Hence, Reaganomics has not really reduced the role of government and politics in the economy, but instigated a particularly undesirable form of both: government for the wealthy. Like Willeft, however, Musgrave sees a number of bright spots in Reaganomics. Income tax indexation was a good idea, as was reducing mar- ginal tax rates. He welcomes the prospect of the “New Federalism," and the Presidents ‘deregula- tion initiatives. Individually, these policies have what Reaganomics as a whole lacks. Namely viidcly accepted goals and good prospects for success. Musgrave's point of view is summed up nicely by another critic. William H. Branson. who dis- putes Willett‘s credibility thesis. Reaganomics does not lack credibility because of the impatience of the electorate or rhetorical oversell. but because it is fundamentally bad policy. Ultimately. a signif- icant portion of the electorate must be convinced of the purposes and the effectiveness of economic policy. Branson believes that such a consensus is unlikely for Reaganomics because much of it is unfair and ineffective. Alice Rivlin. the former director of the Congres- sional Budget Office. expands on the policy point in her brief comment. She claims that the adminis- tration and its backers were not alone in support- ing contradictory goals; after the I980 election almost everyone wanted some form of tax reduc- tion, progress toward a balanced budget. increased defense spending and a reduction in inflation. Simply put. no one has found a way to produce these simultaneoulsy. or to develop acceptable 227 priorities. Such choices are the sum and substance of politics. and in the absence ofsuccessful politics. Riylin concludes. we get the kind of economic policy we deserve. So the non-supply-side critics of Reaganomics see economic policy as unavoidably a product of the political process. for better or for worse. Policy differences aside, the “radical" supply-siders would agree with this; the “main- stream" supply-siders would not. although their policy proposals are much closer to those of the neo-Keynesians. Reaganomit-s: A Midterm Report ought to prompt a degree of self-consciousness among poli- ticians and pundits when they resume debating economic policy. The political process may be as crucial an element in successful economic policy as the particular policy instruments chosen. John C. Green is Assistant Professor of Political St'ient'e at Furman University. Greenville. South Carolina. _—. ll’ 45
CRS84798Lpage98
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CRS84798Lpage102
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CRS84798Lpage104
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ABSTRACT Economic Policy Book Reviews is a collection of full length critical reviews of books discussing economic policy. The reviews consist of all those appearing in thirty sources from winter 1983-1984 to November 1984. The sources examined for reviews include newspapers, popular business magazines, economics journals, and political science journals that review books of economic policy
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Washington, D.C. 20540 84-798 L Congressional Research Service The Library of Congress ECONOMIC POLICY BOOK REVIEWS Published since Winter 1983-1984 Compiled by Robert S. Kirk Senior Bibliographer, Economics Library Services Division November 1984
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CRS84798Lpage46
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CRS84798Lpage51
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rmnc MONKEY Orley Ashenfelter Dangerous Currents: The State of Eco- nomics, by Lester C. T h-urow 6 ffandom House, 24 7 pp., $14.95 IKE THE economy, economic science 1 has its ups and downs. Dangerous Currents charts the course of economic science over the last three decades and concludes that the economics profession is in treacherous waters. The major in- dictment is that the conventional sup
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turns out to have been badly misplaced. They put 1984 GNP at $3,352 billion in 1982 dollars; in fact, it will come in 1.4% higher than that even if we have zero growth for the rest of the year. The authors simply missed the recovery’ s strength. Real disposable family income will be at least 4.9% (3.5% + 1.4%) highenthis 2§i”N’.FORTUNE NOVEMBER 12, 1984 year than it wasin 1980. So by the authors’ own
CRS84798Lpage45
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of 1972, the Federal Reserve began to increase the rate of growth of the money supply. . . . The Fed was encouraged in economic adviser Herbert Stein’s new book tasty but not nourishing. by Michael K. Evans Presidential Economlc The _l~m1nv.-.-tlazurtuau oi the Pnaflslit _ lu_<mumtt' _ .._.... this move by the administration.” Even- tually, of course, Ml rose 9.2 percent" during 1972, which
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l y ,roduced with the permission of International Social Science Review, @1984, v. 59, winter i..a4: 59-60. Lester C. Thurow. Dangerous Currents: The State of Economics, New York: Random House. 1983. pp. xix + 247. $16.95. ‘ Fifty years ago the United States was in the throes of the Great Depression. The unemployment rate was 25 percent and the price level was falling. Searching
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What needs to be done. Thurow tells us in the last chapter. is a reexamination and a restructuring of the foundations of economics. in so doing economists must modify. if not relinquish. the concept of homo economicus-—the economic man who is always a utility maximizer. “To reconstruct a theory of economic behavior. a more complex vision of the interaction between society and its citizens is paramount" (p. 222). Economists. Thurow is saying. must deal with (not his terms) homo socio/ogicus and homo ps_vchologz'cu.s rather than exclusively with homo econmnicus. Toward this end. they would do well to cross over into the fields of sociology and psychology and come up with economic theories which describe economic behavior of John and Sally Doe rather than some unreal homo economi~ ms. is Dangerous Cim-ems worth reading? The answer is yes. if you do not mind a bit of carping and warmed over criticism of the way economists theorize. profess. and practice whatever it is they do. The answer is no. ifyou are searching for more challenging criticism of classical economic theory and its recent outcroppings. If you read the book and have a feeling of doja vu. try to remember which of Veblen's books youhave read. Veblen's The Flare of Science in Modern Cii'ili:an'on- ( l9l9) put under scrutiny some of the same assumptions of classical economics that so bother Thurow. In this reviewer's judgment. Veblen did it with more finesse. Dtmgcrous CllI‘I'C’HIS. on the other hand. is more readable. and belongs in the “light reading" section of your economics library. Edward R. Sopiarz
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