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-price guidelines (1962-1967-and 1978-1979), a wage—price freeze and mandatory con- trols (1971-1974), a flirtation with credit controls (1980), a devaluation of the dol- lar (1971), the abandonment of the sys- tem of fixed exchange rates (1973), and a major shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy (1979). The ideal remains elusive. 1 It remains elusive because it is unat- tainable. The story of the past twenty 99
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’t think Congress would pass it. He was, of course, right. He finally advanced a sur- tax, in 1967, but Congress did not adopt the measure until June of 1968. By that 100 time, the virtual price stability of the 1950s and early 1960s had been lost; be- tween 1960 and 1966, inflation had risen from one to 3 percent, and it kept rising. The episode revealed an inherent im- balance in. the politics
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the Depression. Unemployment in 1939 was 17.2 per- cent, lower than in 1933 (24.9 percent) but higher than in 1931 (15.9 percent). War ended the Depression. In 1944, un- employment was 1.2 percent. What the Depression actually changed
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) derived in part from the price stability of the 1950s. But by the 1970s, the economy had to deal with the infla- tionary side effects of those policies. A1- most all the comparisons favor the 1950s. 1950s 1960s 19703 Average Annual Unemployment 4.5% 4.7% 6.4% Average Annual Inflation 2.1% 2.8% 7.9% Average Annual Productivity Gain 2.6% 2.8% 1.4% ESPITE THE EXAMPLE of the fifties, the prejudice persists
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predecessors, President Reagan’s 1980-1981 utopian promises belonged to a long tradition of overblown rhetoric. His Democratic critics still peddle bat- tered versions of the vision of the 1960s. Government that constantly inflicts fail- ure on itself-—by creating expectations of impossible success-—risks undermin- ing public’ support and inducing increas- ingly unstable and desperate policies. Ideas hold
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pur- poses. such as college tuition. may work or save less. The overall effects of a tax cut will depend on how many people re- spond each way. Stein gives an estimate of the effects of a 30 percent across-the-board cut in tax rates. the original goal of the Kemp-Roth bill. For a doctor earning $120,000 a year. this would mean a reduction of $12,000 in his tax bill; for someone earn- ing $25,000
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- ditions. During the 1950s and 19605, American business accepted unions as le- gitimate institutions and abided by an ex- ceedingly frugal version of the welfare state. During the 1970s, U.S. corporations uni- laterally abrogated this implicit social con- tract. In a determined campaign to shore up profit margins, they shifted plants to anti-union environments at home and abroad, deployed bankruptcy
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of the flame, and from the outset it bemoans the fact that President Reagan, in filling economic policy positions, reached out beyondsupply-side economists. Mr. Roberts served as assistant secretary of the Trea- sury for economic policy in 1981-82. He now holds the William E. Simon chair in political economy at the Cen- ter for Strategic and International Studies at Georgetown University. Scattered
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Reaganomics: A Midterm Report edited by Wm. Craig Stubblebine and Thomas D. Willett. San Francisco, [CS Press, 1983. 232 pp. $14.95. How successful are the Reagan adrninistration’s economic policies, after two years of ex- perience? Reaganomics provides a lively, fair and candid summing up by prominent sup- porters and critics in a paper and discussant format. I enjoyed it, and think that under
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, in contrast, writes of the “unraveling” of Reaganomics. It is in the area of spending cuts that the resultshave been so disappointing. While federal revenues have de- clined as a portion of gross national product since 1980, federal spending has risen from 2.2 percent of GNP in 1980 to 25 percent in1983. Moreover, regulatory re- form has been more modest than expected. Finally, mon- etary policy has been
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